New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
\nTonight, 8:35 p.m. ET<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll cut right to the chase: the Saints should feel disrespected by the 1.5-point spread, one that reflects a general media bias toward Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots dynasty. To assume the storied Pats will dethrone the Saints is to ignore the numbers, which don\u2019t actually favor New England at all.<\/p>\n
My assertion has nothing to do with Brady and the Patriots offense; it\u2019s safe to say they\u2019ll do their part tonight. Brady has totally rediscovered the rapport he had with Randy Moss and Wes Welker in 2007, terrorizing opposing defenses and leading the Pats to the AFC\u2019s No. 1 offensive rank this season. The Saints\u2019 ball-hawk defense, led by Darren Sharper, has made plenty of good quarterbacks look bad this year, but the wily Brady won\u2019t get scared by Gregg Williams\u2019 blitzing schemes.<\/p>\n
New England\u2019s real problem is that we have no reason to believe they\u2019ll stop Drew Brees or Marques Colston or Jeremy Shockey or Pierre Thomas or any part of the Saints\u2019 offense. The Patriots have one of the NFL\u2019s top pass defenses statistically but that\u2019s not hard to do when you\u2019ve faced Mark Sanchez twice, Trent Edwards, Josh Johnson, Kerry Collins, Kyle Orton and Chad Henne \u2013 not exactly a who\u2019s who of NFL quarterbacks, is it? New England did handle sophomores Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco \u2013 at home. On the road, where the Patriots are just 1-3 this season, they couldn\u2019t stop Peyton Manning and the Colts to save their lives. Manning drove on New England again and again, amassing 327 passing yards four touchdown passes.<\/p>\n
The Patriots\u2019 defense has only faced one tough road challenge and it failed miserably. Why, then, should we expect the \u201cD\u201d to handle the Saints, who have an even better offense than Indianapolis? If New England gets a lead it may have trouble holding the lead; Laurence Maroney\u2019s running has improved but Sedrick Ellis is back at nose tackle and ready to start plugging holes again for the Saints.<\/p>\n
You\u2019d be wise to bet over the total tonight (unlike in Florida Alabama betting<\/a>) as both quarterbacks should have big days. But the Saints run the ball better and their defense has conquered tougher opponents. We also can\u2019t forget that the Louisiana Superdome is a rowdy place and New England has just one road win this year. Make the Saints your NFL picks<\/a>.<\/p>\n