{"id":15495,"date":"2009-11-10T11:40:16","date_gmt":"2009-11-10T16:40:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.capperspicks.com\/blog\/?p=15495"},"modified":"2009-11-10T11:40:16","modified_gmt":"2009-11-10T16:40:16","slug":"ncaa-football-gambling-analysis-101109","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/handicapping\/ncaa-football-gambling-analysis-101109\/","title":{"rendered":"Ben Burns: Bad Beats November 10th"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bad Beats: Where have all the \u2018Pick \u2018em\u2019s\u2019 gone?<\/h2>\n
\"Ben<\/a>
Ben Burns<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The old oddmakers\u2019 joke goes like this: \u2018You can\u2019t make a game a Pick because the squares won\u2019t know who to bet.\u2019<\/p>\n

It\u2019s referring to the public\u2019s love of favorites. But oddmakers aren\u2019t kidding around about Pick \u2018em games anymore. There aren\u2019t any.<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE NOW TO VIEW BEN BURNS\u2019 WEEKLY PICKS \u2014><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Lines may pass over the even mark, but it\u2019s rarely a lengthy stay. And the line certainly never ends up there. According to our archive of closing lines, no games have gone off with an even point spread through the first 10 weeks of the college football season.<\/p>\n

In fact, it\u2019s hard to recall the last time a game went off as a Pick. Do you remember the last time you played a game with an even point spread?<\/p>\n

Last week, the Houston-Tulsa game hovered around a Pick all week, but only briefly was posted at even. The Cougars opened at as much as 3-point favorites. But this number was all over the place from the get-go. By the middle of the week, Tulsa was the favorite at most books. By kickoff, Houston was again around a 1.5-point favorite.\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The game itself was as wild as the line movements.<\/p>\n

In a high-scoring, back-and-forth shootout, Tulsa grabbed a 45-37 lead on a Charles Clay one-yard touchdown run with 3:28 to play.<\/p>\n

Houston made it 45-43 on Case Keenum\u2019s third touchdown pass of the day with only 21 seconds remaining. The two-point conversion failed.<\/p>\n

The ensuing onside kick did not. Houston recovered on its own 34, but had little time to make something happen. Actually, they had plenty.<\/p>\n

Keenum completed quick-strike passes for 13 and 14 yards and in seconds had the Cougars at the Tulsa 34.<\/p>\n

Houston kicker Matt Hogan, whose previous career-long kick was 34 yards, drilled a 51-yard, winning kick. Final score: Houston 46, Tulsa 45.<\/p>\n

This game in particular shows just how important it is to shop around for the best number and how betting a game on the wrong side of big line movement is never a good idea, especially in games with small spreads.<\/p>\n

If you bet the Golden Hurricane after the steam made it the favorite, you\u2019re cursing yourself right now. If you bet Houston after the money came back in on the Cougars late in the week, you might have found yourself giving 1.5 points in a one-point game.<\/p>\n

David Payne wrote this on behalf of Ben Burns<\/h4>\n

Click here to See More from Ben Burns \u2013 Including His Free Picks + Expert Selections \u2013 Grab 1 Month Of Picks For Less Then $400 Today!!! >>><\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Time for another College football betting Bad Beat article by expert handicapper Ben Burns…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[551],"tags":[9315,2390,9155,9147,9144,9146,1646,9163,17513,17514,10750,66513,19795,1311],"class_list":["post-15495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-handicapping","tag-bad-beats","tag-ben-burns","tag-ben-burns-free-picks","tag-ben-burns-handicapping","tag-ben-burns-picks","tag-ben-burns-predictions","tag-betting-analysis","tag-experts-picks","tag-football-betting-online","tag-football-handicapping-tips","tag-gambling-analysis","tag-handicapping","tag-houston-vs-tulsa-recap","tag-wagering"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/68"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15495"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15495\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16073,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15495\/revisions\/16073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}