{"id":13218,"date":"2009-09-16T17:53:24","date_gmt":"2009-09-16T22:53:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.capperspicks.com\/blog\/?p=13218"},"modified":"2009-09-16T17:53:24","modified_gmt":"2009-09-16T22:53:24","slug":"college-football-value-betting-tips-160909","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/cappers\/college-football-value-betting-tips-160909\/","title":{"rendered":"CFB Line Shopping: Small Schools"},"content":{"rendered":"

Value shopping: Is there any left in BYU or Houston?<\/h2>\n
\"Ben<\/a>
Ben Burns<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Both Cougars have caught the public\u2019s eye by taking care of top-five BCS opponents early in the season.<\/p>\n

BYU, of course, knocked out Heisman trophy winner Sam Bradford before knocking Oklahoma off its lofty No. 3 perch.<\/p>\n

Houston exposed No. 5 Oklahoma State last week in Stillwater.<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE NOW TO VIEW BEN BURNS\u2019 WEEKLY COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING PICKS \u2014><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Neither team will be sneaking up on anyone anytime soon and will likely be taxed with inflated lines due to their newly-acquired media darling status.<\/p>\n

Any line value BYU and Houston had certainly will be squeezed by oddsmakers, at least until the hype of their upsets wear down. The Mormon Cougars opened as seven-point home favorites against Florida State. (If that\u2019s inflated, it sure does seem low, especially noting the Seminoles\u2019 struggles against Jacksonville State.)<\/p>\n

The Houston Cougars get a week off to let their upset of Oklahoma State go to their heads, before hosting another Big 12 opponent in Texas Tech. It will be very interesting to see what the line looks like for the Cougars game against a Texas Tech team coming off this week\u2019s meeting with Texas. If the Longhorns hammer Texas Tech, would Houston possibly be favored?<\/p>\n

Right now, there is plenty of overconfidence flowing at Houston and BYU. It\u2019s only human nature, after all. Non-BCS schools that aren\u2019t used to experiencing BCS-sized success often struggle to handle it. They also struggle to cover the big numbers they\u2019ll be laying in the weeks following their upset.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For example, in 2005, TCU opened the season by stunning Adrian Peterson and seventh-ranked Oklahoma in Norman. The Horned Frogs promptly lost to SMU the next week as 14-point favorites.<\/p>\n

Last year, East Carolina pulled of pair of upsets to start the season. First, the Pirates beat No. 17 Virginia Tech. They followed that up with a 24-3 trouncing of No. 8 West Virginia.<\/p>\n

East Carolina was favored in its next seven games and went 1-6 against the spread during that stretch.<\/p>\n

The fairy tale doesn\u2019t always end poorly for teams that pull off major upsets early in the season. The same 2005 TCU team rebounded from its loss to SMU to finish 11-1, including an impressive 7-1 ATS in conference play.<\/p>\n

So are this year\u2019s BYU and Houston teams more like the 2005 Horned Frogs or the 2008 Pirates, who finished 5-9 against the number?<\/p>\n

Kevin Sumlin\u2019s Cougars have a much easier road ahead than Bronco Mendehall\u2019s Cougars.<\/p>\n

Houston hasn\u2019t received nearly as much love from the polls as BYU, which entered the top 10 this week. Houston just crept into the top 25 at No. 22.<\/p>\n

But looking at the two teams on paper, it\u2019s hard to pinpoint the reasoning behind why BYU is considered to be a vastly superior team than Houston.<\/p>\n

Both teams returned approximately 12 starters. Both feature star quarterbacks. BYU has 13th-year senior Max Hall. Houston is led by Conference Offensive Player of the Year Case Keenum.<\/p>\n

Obviously, BYU has experienced more recent success, having won its last three bowl games. But past success will only get you so far in college football.<\/p>\n

Plus, in last season\u2019s Armed Forces Bowl, Houston defeated an Air Force team that led BYU at half last year.<\/p>\n

Yet, BYU started the season ranked, while Houston received a lousy two votes.<\/p>\n

The discrepancy is a head-scratcher, but also suggests that, as we move into conference play, bettors can expect to find more value betting on the Cougars from Texas than the Cougars from Utah.<\/p>\n

David Payne writes for Sports Handicapping Expert Ben Burns. <\/em><\/p>\n

=========================================<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Each week David and Ben will search for value in the non-BCS conferences.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Click here to See More from Ben Burns \u2013 Including His Free Picks + Expert Selections \u2013 Grab 1 Month Of Picks For Less Then $400 Today!!! >>><\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Top Capper Ben Burns weighs in with a simple point that as we move into conference play, bettors can expect to find more value betting on the small schools…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[258],"tags":[2390,14279,14274,14275,16777,9146,17036,319,1565,17315,17316,17317],"class_list":["post-13218","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cappers","tag-ben-burns","tag-ben-burns-articles","tag-ben-burns-cfb-picks","tag-ben-burns-ncaa-football-predictions","tag-ben-burns-ncaaf-picks","tag-ben-burns-predictions","tag-burns-handicapping","tag-college-football-gambling","tag-college-football-handicapping","tag-college-football-value-betting-tips","tag-line-shopping","tag-value-betting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13218","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/68"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13218"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13218\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13220,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13218\/revisions\/13220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13218"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13218"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13218"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}