{"id":11833,"date":"2009-07-14T11:07:06","date_gmt":"2009-07-14T16:07:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.capperspicks.com\/blog\/?p=11833"},"modified":"2009-07-14T11:10:37","modified_gmt":"2009-07-14T16:10:37","slug":"mlb-gambling-analysis-140709","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/handicapping\/mlb-gambling-analysis-140709\/","title":{"rendered":"Ben Burns: Bad Beats July 14th"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bad beats: Are we whiny?<\/h2>\n
\"Ben<\/a>
Ben Burns<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Losing stings when a game goes just like you thought it would, but you end up on the wrong side.<\/p>\n

Those times when your team\u2019s running game was way too much for the other team\u2019s injury-ravaged D-line. But a tipped pass is intercepted and returned for a meaningless touchdown, preventing you from covering.<\/p>\n

Or when you play the under in hoops, and the game is 30 points under at the end of regulation \u2026 before going into overtime.<\/p>\n

They hurt.<\/p>\n

Yes, yes \u2026 before all you righteous gamblers start whining about our whining, we understand these things happen. Trust us.<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE NOW TO VIEW BEN BURNS\u2019 WEEKLY PICKS \u2014><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t make losing a game you clearly were on the right side of hurt any less.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

For example, let\u2019s look at Saturday\u2019s Pittsburgh-Philadelphia game.<\/p>\n

The Pirates sent Ross Ohlendorf to the mound against the Phillies\u2019 Cole Hamels.<\/p>\n

Ohlendorf has pitched better than his 7-7 record suggests. He\u2019s got great stuff and someone to look out for in the future.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Hamels recently has been way worse than his 5-5 mark.<\/p>\n

Yet, the Pirates were big underdogs at +230. Noting Philly\u2019s struggles at home and Pittsburgh\u2019s superior bullpen in addition to the perceived pitching advantage, the Pirates looked like a good value.<\/p>\n

Just like everyone else has, Pittsburgh smacked around Hamels early. They hit three home runs and led 5-0 after two innings.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Ohlendorf was solid, but threw a lot of pitches and wore down in the sixth. Still, he left with a 5-3 lead.<\/p>\n

Hamels had been knocked out too, so it was a battle of the bullpens. As noted, Pittsburgh\u2019s bullpen is significantly better than Philadelphia\u2019s in ERA and save percentage.<\/p>\n

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Two Phillies\u2019 relievers promptly surrendered a couple of insurance runs in the seventh on a bases-loaded walk and an RBI groundout.<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh took a 7-3 into the ninth and handed it over to closer Matt Capps, who had converted on 19-of 20 save opportunities.<\/p>\n

Make that 19 of 21.<\/p>\n

The Phillies hit Capps hard and often, rallying for five runs, including two home runs, to pull out the victory.<\/p>\n

Again, we agree these things happen. But do you agree Pittsburgh was the right side, and in that same situation would win 70 to 80 percent of those games?<\/p>\n

Are we truly whiny or are we human?<\/p>\n

Be nice.<\/p>\n

Happy All-Star break, everyone. Congrats if you\u2019re up at the midway mark, and here\u2019s to hoping things turn around if you\u2019re not.<\/p>\n

David Payne writes for Ben Burns.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

==========================================<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

Click here to See More from Ben Burns – Including His Free Picks + Expert Selections – Grab 1 Month Of Picks For Less Then $400 Today!!! >>><\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Time for another Bad Beat article by expert MLB handicapper Ben Burns. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[551],"tags":[15179,2390,9155,9147,9144,9146,1646,9163,10750,66513,1311],"class_list":["post-11833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-handicapping","tag-baseball-handicapping-tips","tag-ben-burns","tag-ben-burns-free-picks","tag-ben-burns-handicapping","tag-ben-burns-picks","tag-ben-burns-predictions","tag-betting-analysis","tag-experts-picks","tag-gambling-analysis","tag-handicapping","tag-wagering"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/68"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11833"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11833\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11838,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11833\/revisions\/11838"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}