{"id":11775,"date":"2009-07-13T09:55:49","date_gmt":"2009-07-13T14:55:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.capperspicks.com\/blog\/?p=11775"},"modified":"2009-07-13T09:57:03","modified_gmt":"2009-07-13T14:57:03","slug":"big12-college-football-predictions-2009-130709","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/handicapping\/big12-college-football-predictions-2009-130709\/","title":{"rendered":"NCAA Football Handicapping: 2009 Big 12 Football"},"content":{"rendered":"

Burns’ Big 12 Preview<\/h2>\n
\"Ben<\/a>
Ben Burns<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The Big 12 is spewing confidence.<\/p>\n

Texas coach Mack Brown and Nebraska AD Tom Osborne claim their conference is top to bottom as competitive as the mighty SEC.<\/p>\n

Whatever.<\/p>\n

Head-to-head, the Big 12 is not better than the SEC. In both bowl meetings last year, the SEC came out on top, with Ole Miss handling Texas Tech and Florida pushing past Oklahoma. The SEC is deeper and has overall better coaching, with four coaches owning national championship rings.<\/p>\n

However, when it comes to what really matters-\u2014ATS records\u2014the Big 12<\/strong> is vastly superior to the SEC.<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE NOW TO VIEW BEN BURNS\u2019 WEEKLY PICKS \u2014><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Last season, the Big 12 went 27-18 ATS in non-conference games, compared to the SEC\u2019s rather pedestrian 25-22 mark against the number.<\/p>\n

Will the Big 12 be able to continue that trend? It won\u2019t be easy.<\/p>\n

Oklahoma and Texas combined to go 19-5 against the spread in 2008.<\/p>\n

Both are expected to be powerful again, but another 80 percent ATS winning percentage seems unlikely, especially with the big numbers the Sooners and Longhorns will be laying.<\/p>\n

Oklahoma State moves ahead of Texas Tech and Missouri as the Big 12\u2019s third wheel. Kansas and Nebraska should battle it out for the North Division. But, after those teams, the bottom of the Big 12 could struggle.<\/p>\n

Projected finish<\/strong><\/p>\n

(ATS records are for last three years.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

South Division<\/strong><\/p>\n

Texas<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 20-17-1 (Home: 11-8, Away: 5-7-1)<\/p>\n

Thing to remember: Look for Mack Brown to attempt to establish the running game early in the season. Last year\u2019s leading rusher was quarterback Colt McCoy, the one player the Longhorns absolutely cannot afford to lose to injury.<\/p>\n

Bonus: The Longhorns own the best in-conference ATS record since 2000 at 41-31-2.<\/p>\n

Oklahoma<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 25-14-2 (Home: 13-4-1; Away: 7-4-1)<\/p>\n

Thing to remember: The Sooners must replace four starters on the offensive line. Two reserve linemen also left during the offseason, making depth a concern. This could cause Bob Stoops to pull back on the reigns of his super-fast, no-huddle attack that was so potent last season. An improved defense also could lead to slightly slower offensive scheme.<\/p>\n

Oklahoma State<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 21-13-2 (Home: 10-4-2; Away: 9-8)<\/p>\n

Thing to remember: Under coach Mike Gundy, the Cowboys are 1-7 straight up against teams ranked in the Top 10. Their regular-season losses last year were to teams ranked No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3.<\/p>\n

Texas Tech<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 16-19 (Home: 8-7; Away: 8-10)<\/p>\n

Thing to remember: Mike Leach knows how to get his team to rebound. Under Leach, the Red Raiders are 21-11 ATS after a straight up loss.<\/p>\n

Texas A&M<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 17-18-1 (Home: 7-4-1; Away: 8-6)<\/p>\n

Thing to remember: Texas A&M is going to a no-huddle, high-tempo offense, similar to what Oklahoma used to set numerous NCAA records last season. The Aggies don\u2019t have the personnel of the Sooners, but the offense\u2019s tempo will at least result in more plays. Whether or not it equals more points is up for debate.<\/p>\n

Baylor<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 15-18 (Home: 7-10; Away: 7-8)<\/p>\n

Thing to remember: Don\u2019t be surprised if the Bears\u2019 offense takes a step back this season. In Art Briles\u2019 second season at Houston, the Cougars averaged 14 points less than they did in his first season and finished 3-8 ATS.<\/p>\n

North Division<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kansas<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 24-11 (Home: 12-6; Away: 9-4)<\/p>\n

Thing to remember: The Jayhawks return the division\u2019s top quarterback in Todd Reesing and the conference\u2019s top receiving corps, led by Dezmon Briscoe. But their offensive line is extremely shaky. Two redshirt freshmen and two sophomores could possibly start.<\/p>\n

Nebraska<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 17-20-1 (Home: 10-11; Away: 6-7-1)<\/p>\n

Thing to remember: The Cornhuskers have covered in only four of their last 12 games as road underdogs. They\u2019re at Virginia Tech, Sept 19.<\/p>\n

Colorado<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 14-21 (Home: 7-9; Away: 5-9)<\/p>\n

Thing to remember: With nine returning starters on offense, this should be the year coach Dan Hawkins finally gets the Buffalo offense rolling.<\/p>\n

Hawkins\u2019 Boise State teams averaged more than 40 points a game. The Buffalos, under Hawkins, have averaged just over 21 a game.<\/p>\n

Missouri<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 21-17 (Home: 9-7; Away: 7-6)\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Thing to remember: New quarterback Blaine Gabbert is a highly-touted pro-style quarterback, who has the potential to make Tiger fans forget about Chase Daniel. Unfortunately, Gabbert doesn\u2019t have Daniel\u2019s weapons. Missouri must replace its top four receivers from last year.<\/p>\n

With the fewest returning starters in the conference, including only four on defense, Missouri should take a step back this season.<\/p>\n

Kansas State<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 16-18 (Home: 9-9; Away: 6-8)<\/p>\n

Thing to remember: At least a dozen players have left Kansas State since 70-year-old coach Bill Snyder came out retirement to return as Wildcats coach.<\/p>\n

Iowa State<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS: 14-19 (Home: 7-10; Away: 7-9)<\/p>\n

Thing to remember: The Cyclones have lost 17 consecutive road games. That\u2019s particularly bad news, seeing as Iowa State has only three conference home games.<\/p>\n

Play the over on \u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iowa State: Offensive coordinator Tom Herman, who directed Rice\u2019s prolific attacks the past two years, inherits nine returning starters, including dual-threat quarterback Austen Arnaud.<\/p>\n

Last season, Rice averaged over 41 points a game. Nine of the Owls\u2019 12 games went over the total.<\/p>\n

This offense will be much more wide-open and tailored to Arnaud\u2019s skills this season than last year\u2019s under Gene Chizik.<\/p>\n

The defense is another story, where first-year coach Paul Rhoads has some major questions marks throughout the unit.<\/p>\n

Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas also will put up points in bunches, but that foursome isn\u2019t going to sneak up on anyone; The Cyclones might.<\/p>\n

Play the under on \u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nebraska: In a high-scoring, defense-lacking conference, let\u2019s tread lightly here. But Nebraska could develop into a dominant defense.<\/p>\n

Bo Pelini is an elite defensive coach, with an elite defensive tackle in Ndamukong Suh. Some project the 6-4, 300-pound Suh as the No. 1 pick in next year\u2019s NFL draft.<\/p>\n

Behind Suh is a secondary with all four returning starters.<\/p>\n

In Pelini\u2019s first year, the Huskers held opponents to nearly 10 points less than the previous season.<\/p>\n

On the offensive side of the ball, they\u2019re breaking in a new quarterback in Zac Lee, a junior with two career pass attempts. Lee didn\u2019t win the starting job outright until redshirt freshman Kody Spano was injured in the spring.<\/p>\n

There are not a lot of stars on this offense.<\/p>\n

The coaching staff readily admits ball control will be a big part of their offense.<\/p>\n

The Huskers were among the nation\u2019s leaders in time of possession last season.<\/p>\n

Talent-gauging Early Games<\/strong><\/p>\n

(Check out these September tests to see how the Big 12 stacks up.)<\/strong><\/p>\n