{"id":11292,"date":"2009-06-25T16:25:41","date_gmt":"2009-06-25T21:25:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.capperspicks.com\/blog\/?p=11292"},"modified":"2009-06-25T16:38:38","modified_gmt":"2009-06-25T21:38:38","slug":"big10-college-football-predictions-2009-250609","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/handicapping\/big10-college-football-predictions-2009-250609\/","title":{"rendered":"NCAA Football Handicapping: 2009 Big 10 Football"},"content":{"rendered":"

Burns’ Big Ten Preview<\/h2>\n

All you Big Ten haters better be changing your tune.\u00a0The Big Ten is back, with four teams capable of making a BCS-sized impact and a couple of upstarts flying under the public\u2019s radar.\u00a0In recent years, the conference\u2019s reputation has taken a major beating.\u00a0The Big Ten went 15-26 ATS in non-conference games in 2008.<\/p>\n

Ohio State and Penn State each got clobbered by USC, and the Buckeyes looked slow in BCS Championship Game losses to Florida and LSU.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

But this year you can put the Big Ten\u2019s<\/strong> four best teams\u2014Ohio State, Penn State, Illinois and Iowa\u2014up against any other conference\u2019s top four and feel confident.<\/p>\n

CLICK HERE NOW TO VIEW BEN BURNS\u2019 WEEKLY PICKS \u2014><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

There\u2019s a significant drop off after those four, who all return experienced quarterbacks. Of the remaining teams, only Minnesota returns an established starting quarterback. Michigan, Michigan State and Wisconsin could have opening day starters, who have never played in a Division I game.<\/p>\n

College Football Oddsmakers<\/strong><\/a> have pinned the Buckeyes (+150) as the favorites to win the conference. But Penn State (+250), Iowa (+500) and Illinois (+600) are in the mix. At +7500, Purdue, with new coach Danny Hope, is the biggest longshot.<\/p>\n

Overall, the Big Ten will be an improved conference, especially up top. There is money to be made, as long as the public\u2019s perception of the Big Ten remains a slow, out-of-date conference.<\/p>\n

Big Ten Projected Finish<\/strong><\/p>\n

ATS records are from last three seasons<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. Ohio State<\/strong>
\nATS: 22-15 (Home: 9-10, Away: 12-3)
\nThing to remember: Being away from Columbus hasn\u2019t affected the Buckeyes. They are 11-2 ATS in their last games as road favorites.<\/p>\n

2. Penn State<\/strong>
\nATS: 19-18 (Home: 11-8, Away: 6-9)
\nThing to remember: The Nittany Lions have been lethal as double-digit favorites. They\u2019ve covered 13 of their last 18 when giving up at least 10 points.<\/p>\n

3. Iowa<\/strong>
\nATS: 15-21 (Home: 7-11, Away: 5-9)
\nThing to remember: The Hawkeyes own the Big Ten\u2019s best in-conference ATS record this decade. Since 2000, Iowa is 43-27-2 ATS in conference play<\/p>\n

4. Illinois<\/strong>
\nATS: 16-18 (Home: 7-9, Away: 9-5)
\nThing to remember: Illinois gets off to hot offensive starts under Ron Zook. The Illini has averaged more than 25 points a game in the first month of the season in Zook\u2019s four years. Thirteen of their last 19 September games have gone over the total.<\/p>\n

5. Michigan<\/strong>
\nATS: 16-20-1 (Home: 8-13, Away: 7-6-1) Non: 0-4
\nThing to remember: In Rich Rodriguez\u2019s second season at West Virginia, the Mountaineers went 9-3 ATS, including 7-0 in conference.<\/p>\n

6. Michigan State<\/strong>
\nATS: 17-18-2 (Home: 7-11-3, Away: 9-6)
\nThing to remember: It took coach Mark Dantonio three years to get things turned around at Cincinnati. He enters his third season at Michigan State with 15 returning starters and his best team yet.<\/p>\n

7. Wisconsin<\/strong>
\nATS: 18-18 (Home: 10-8; Away: 6-8) Non: 2-2
\nThing to remember: The quarterback situation is a huge question mark. Senior Dustin Sherer was inconsistent while splitting time last season. The only other option is talented redshirt freshman Curt Phillips.<\/p>\n

8. Northwestern<\/strong>
\nATS: 16-18 (Home: 7-10; Away: 7-8) Non: 2-2
\nThing to remember: Eight starters return on a defense that held opponents to 20 points a game, the lowest total points allowed by a Northwestern team this decade. Bonus: The Wildcats still don\u2019t deal with success well. They are 3-12 ATS after a straight-up win the past three seasons.<\/p>\n

9. Purdue<\/strong>
\nATS: 17-19 (Home: 7-11; Away: 10-6)
\nThing to remember: Fading the young Boilermakers early, before switching gears and backing them late could pay dividends.
\nFirst-year head coach Danny Hope inherits an inexperienced offense and a talented defense, with multiple NFL prospects.
\nThis team will mature into a dangerous squad come late October and November.<\/p>\n

10. Minnesota<\/strong>
\nATS: 18-17 (Home: 8-9; Away: 9-7)
\nThing to remember: The Golden Gophers return 17 starters, the most in the Big Ten.<\/p>\n

11. Indiana<\/strong>
\nATS: 14-20 (Home: 9-10; Away: 4-9)
\nThing to remember: Both of Indiana\u2019s safeties are coming off ACL injuries and might not be at full strength until late in the year at best.\"Just<\/a> One corner is converting from wide receiver; the other is an inexperienced sophomore.\u00a0Good quarterbacks should be able to shred the Hoosiers\u2019 secondary.<\/p>\n

Bonus note:<\/strong> The Hoosiers haven\u2019t posted a winning ATS record in conference play this decade.<\/p>\n

Play the over on \u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>Michigan.\u00a0Rich Rodriguez knows how to score points.\u00a0During his time at West Virginia, the Mountaineers averaged more than 30 points in six of his eight seasons, including his second season in charge.\u00a0Now, Rodriguez enters his second season at Michigan, trying to make up for last year\u2019s 3-9 (2-10 ATS) debacle.\u00a0With 10 starters returning on offense and a quarterback tailored for his spread option, expect the Wolverines to put up 30-plus often this season.<\/p>\n

Defensively, Michigan is inexperienced up front.\u00a0New defensive coordinator Greg Robinson promises to aggressively attack with frequent blitzes.
\nIf the Wolverines aren\u2019t on all the same page immediately, they\u2019ll surrender some big plays, especially early in the season.<\/p>\n

Play the under on \u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iowa.\u00a0The Hawkeyes boast an offensive line capable of wearing down opponents then pounding them on the ground.\u00a0Three starters return from a unit that pushed South Carolina all over the field a dominating Outback Bowl performance.\u00a0Iowa built a 31-0 lead and basically ran out the clock in the second half against the Gamecocks.\u00a0That could be a familiar scene for Hawkeyes games this season, especially against opponents who struggle to contain the run.<\/p>\n

Talent-gauging \u00a0September Games –\u00a0Check out these early games to see how the Big Ten stacks up<\/strong><\/p>\n