{"id":10933,"date":"2009-06-10T14:04:57","date_gmt":"2009-06-10T19:04:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.capperspicks.com\/blog\/?p=10933"},"modified":"2009-06-10T14:05:32","modified_gmt":"2009-06-10T19:05:32","slug":"mlb-gambling-analysis-100609","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/handicapping\/mlb-gambling-analysis-100609\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB Baseball Handicapping Bad Beats"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Burns&#8217; Bad Beats: Hinch manages D&#8217;Backs to loss<\/h2>\n<p>Going by the Book guarantees nothing.<\/p>\n<p>But it would be nice if your manager at least acted like he was aware when he was taking huge statisical gamble.<\/p>\n<p>For example, in Tuesday&#8217;s Diamondbacks-Dodgers game, Arizona manager A.J. Hinch&#8217;s squad was in a bind.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Behind a strong performance from Dan Haren, the Diamondbacks took a 5-1 lead into the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium. It was golden opportunity to pick up a game against the frontrunning Dodgers, who have been especially tough at home.<\/p>\n<p>It was also good chance for Arizona backers to pick up a decent payday from the underdog Diamondbacks.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capperspicks.com\/respsportscapping.php?capper\/capper\/302\/Ben%20Burns\/AF23_15\"><strong>CLICK HERE NOW TO VIEW BEN BURNS\u2019 WEEKLY PICKS \u2014&gt;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Hinch, in his first year as a manager, made sure that didn&#8217;t happen.<\/p>\n<p>He elected to turn the game over to his bullpen in the eighth inning. Diamondback relievers have the third highest ERA in the National League.<\/p>\n<p>Tony Pena, who threw 28 pitches in a trying outing the day before, relieved Haren. He surrendered a run and loaded the bases with two outs.<\/p>\n<p>With left-handed James Loney coming to the plate, Hinch went by the Book. He replaced the right-handed Pena for rookie lefty Dan Schlereth to face Loney, who is hitting 20 points less against left-handers.<\/p>\n<p>It backfired. Loney banged a bases-clearing double, tying the score 5-all.<\/p>\n<p>Now, Hinch was faced with another decision. With Loney on second representing the go-ahead run, the right-handed Casey Blake was up. Blake is hitting .386 against left-handers. On deck was left-handed Andre Ethier, who is hitting just .207 against left-handers.<\/p>\n<p>The Books says Hinch should either relieve Schlereth with a right-hander to face Blake or walk Blake and pitch to Etheir.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, Hinch chose to leave in his Schlereth to face Blake. There&#8217;s certainly nothing in the Book suggesting that strategy. Statistically, it was an awful move and a huge gamble.<a href=\"http:\/\/www.wgmg.co.cr\/aspx\/affiliateStoreClick.aspx?ID_SC=1286&amp;ID_I=274\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" style=\"margin: 1px; border: 1px solid #ffffff;\" title=\"Just Bet\" src=\"http:\/\/banners.wgmg.co.cr\/aspx\/affiliateGetImage.aspx?ID_SC=1286&amp;ID_I=274\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Just Bet\" width=\"250\" height=\"250\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Blake promptly singled to center, scoring Loney to give the Dodgers a 6-5 lead. To rub it in, Schlereth got Ethier to pop out weakly to short. But the damage was done.<\/p>\n<p>The Diamondbacks went down in order in the ninth and suffered a disappointing loss.<\/p>\n<p>So what was Hinch thinking while making the dumb &#8230; err, unconventional &#8230; move?<\/p>\n<p>He certainly didn&#8217;t take responsibility for it by admitting he took a risk. Instead, he pointed the blame for the loss at his team&#8217;s wasted offensive opportunities.<\/p>\n<p>He also talked with the Arizona Republic about the confidence Schlereth would have gained if he would have got the final out to perserve the tie.<\/p>\n<p>Really? According to Hinch&#8217;s reasoning, a rookie pitcher is going to regain all the confidence he lost after coughing up a three run lead by getting one out.<\/p>\n<p>Why are you risking a critical division game just to increase a middle reliever&#8217;s confidence anyway?<\/p>\n<p>It was a silly move, a ridiculous excuse and a bad beat for anyone who had the Diamondbacks.<\/p>\n<p><em>David Payne writes for Ben Burns.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-<\/p>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capperspicks.com\/respsportscapping.php?capper\/capper\/302\/Ben%20Burns\/AF23_15\">Click here to\u00a0See More from Ben Burns &#8211; Including \u00a0His Free Picks + Expert Selections &#8211; Grab 1 Month Of Picks For Less Then $400 Today!!! &gt;&gt;&gt;<\/a><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Behind a strong performance from Dan Haren, the Diamondbacks took a 5-1 lead into the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium. They didn&#8217;t keep it, another BAD Beat in MLB Betting writes sports capper Ben Burns&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[551],"tags":[2390,9155,9147,9144,9146,9163,2058,13138,14025,14213,683],"class_list":["post-10933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-handicapping","tag-ben-burns","tag-ben-burns-free-picks","tag-ben-burns-handicapping","tag-ben-burns-picks","tag-ben-burns-predictions","tag-experts-picks","tag-mlb-baseball-betting","tag-mlb-baseball-handicapping","tag-mlb-betting-analysis","tag-mlb-gambling-analysis","tag-mlb-handicapping"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10933","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/68"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10933"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10933\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10981,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10933\/revisions\/10981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/capperspicks.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}