Value and Betting Futures for the NFL Championship
Joseph D'Amico
Well, I said it a million times, and I will say it a million more. Value and money management is more important than wins and losses. As the odds to win the NFL Championship opened, there were some surprises.
This time of the year can be very tricky if you are not aware of the playoff scenarios in the NFL. When you look at a line and it is too good to be true, it just might be that. Here is a rundown of the playoff situation going into the final week of regular season. Please take note that some early game outcomes will have bearing on later teams situations.
Looking at NFL streaks, two things stand out in 2009: The Saints and Colts. It was quite a story two years ago when the Patriots were trying to march through the NFL regular season at 16-0 as it hadn’t happened in 35 years. Now, just two years later, a pair of teams are threatening to do it!
Depth is such an essential element of success in pro and college football, and one that is easily overlooked. Big college programs have this as a huge advantage over small schools. Because of injuries, Oregon had to use backup QB Nate Cost in the middle of the season, and he played well in a win over UCLA.
As the Saints continue to dominate – nailed MNF 10* Titan on the Saints and the 7* Titan UNDER for a nice big time parlay winner – and the Colts continue to remain unbeaten, the media focus is justly focused on these two teams. This week however, is a significant week for the NFC contenders and how these games will shape the play-off picture.
Among the surprise teams in the NFL this season so far, the biggest among them for me has been the Cincinnati Bengals, no more victims of some of the less than flattering nicknames they have been tagged with in the recent past.
The more you read about trends and angles the more you can get confused with making a profitable NFL pick. Over the years I have been successful in utilizing trends and angles as a part of my NFL picks handicapping arsenal. One such slant on these trends that has been useful is that of the head coaches. Yes, the players are the ones who ultimately excute the coaches NFL picks game plan but it is that coach whose tendencies can be bet on profitably.
For years, pro football has been the sports leader when it comes to parity. Pete Rozelle was credited with, “On any given Sunday any team can beat another.” You say, “Wait a minute — the Saints and Colts started 16-0 SU/11-5 ATS. Where’s the parity?” How about four wins by the Colts of 4 points or less? They didn’t lose a game in the first half of the season, but were far from dominant.
Like a giant leak on a sinking ship, one of the first signs of a poor pro football team is weak run defense. Stopping the run is essential to building a championship team. Who won the Super Bowl in January? The Steelers, a team with the No. 1 overall defense, including No. 2 against the run. In 2007, the eventual champion NY Giants were No. 8 against the run.
A recent Monday night football game saw Brett Favre battle his old team, Green Bay. Favre was the story, with a terrific performance, but young QB Aaron Rodgers put up some sizzling numbers, with 384 yards and 2 TDs. Impressive.
Did they win? Or cover? No, as Minnesota won 30-23.
The most obvious explanation and it’s obvious: 2 turnovers. Turnovers are one of the most basic fundamentals of winning football, both straight up and against the number when analyzing football picks.
Baseball is grabbing a little of the spotlight, but it’s still football that still takes center stage in October.
NCAA Previews:
A marquee matchup in college football is set for Saturday evening when the No. 1 Florida Gators head to Baton Rouge to play the No. 4 LSU Tigers. Online sportsbooks have the nation’s consensus top team favored by 7.5-points with a Total of 46.
The third week of the NFL season was exciting and filled with action as usual. We saw the return of Michael Vick (even though it was pretty anti-climactic) and the Detroit Lions finally win a game. Let’s see who covered the spread and who didn’t in Week 3.
Sports Betting Tips: Handicapping Injuries and Suspensions
The sports betting world is getting set to make their NFL picks for this coming Week 4 schedule and one of the things everyone needs to be aware of is, of course, injuries. But not just players who are out of the lineup because of nicks and bruises, but also players who are coming back from an injury…or from a league mandated suspension.
Three weeks into the NFL season and no true favorite has emerged in the outright betting for a Super Bowl victory, but there have certainly been plenty of movers in the market and none more so than the New Orleans Saints.
Although plenty is known about the fierce Saints offense, which has played brillianty twice and spluttered for one half in an eventually big win over Buffalo, but their defense has surprised many this season.
The first two weeks are officially in the books and have started to tell us a few things about the teams that we cheer for. With that being said, it’s only the third week and we have 14 games left for each team. What will happen towards the end of the season is still a mystery as we’ve seen some pretty crazy things already. So what should we expect out of the games in the third week of the season?
The NFL Week 2 action is now in the books, so it’s time to take a look back at some of the happenings from this past weekend, plus preview some of what’s on tap for the coming weekend. Lines are already up for all the games at Sportsbook.com.