As 2009 draws to a close, we find ourselves smack in the middle of the bowls. You shouldn’t be bowled-out with football picks, either, as the bowls slowly build to the crescendo that is the Texas/Alabama showdown.
Looking at NFL streaks, two things stand out in 2009: The Saints and Colts. It was quite a story two years ago when the Patriots were trying to march through the NFL regular season at 16-0 as it hadn’t happened in 35 years. Now, just two years later, a pair of teams are threatening to do it!
Depth is such an essential element of success in pro and college football, and one that is easily overlooked. Big college programs have this as a huge advantage over small schools. Because of injuries, Oregon had to use backup QB Nate Cost in the middle of the season, and he played well in a win over UCLA.
It’s Thanksgiving week, which means the middle of the NFL campaign while winding down the college football regular season. Late season college football means heated races for conference titles and bowl berths, plus rivalries that span decades, all of which can influence college football predictions. These games can have far more importance for players than September/October clashes.
For years, pro football has been the sports leader when it comes to parity. Pete Rozelle was credited with, “On any given Sunday any team can beat another.” You say, “Wait a minute — the Saints and Colts started 16-0 SU/11-5 ATS. Where’s the parity?” How about four wins by the Colts of 4 points or less? They didn’t lose a game in the first half of the season, but were far from dominant.
October memories glare the brightest in baseball lore. Bobby Thompson’s 1951 home run, Don Larsen’s perfect game in Game 5 of the ’56 Series, Bob Gibson’s 17-strikeouts in Game 1 ’68, Carlton Fisk’s home run in ’75, Kirk Gibson’s blast in ’88, Joe Carter’s Series ending three-run homer in 1993.
Like a giant leak on a sinking ship, one of the first signs of a poor pro football team is weak run defense. Stopping the run is essential to building a championship team. Who won the Super Bowl in January? The Steelers, a team with the No. 1 overall defense, including No. 2 against the run. In 2007, the eventual champion NY Giants were No. 8 against the run.
A recent Monday night football game saw Brett Favre battle his old team, Green Bay. Favre was the story, with a terrific performance, but young QB Aaron Rodgers put up some sizzling numbers, with 384 yards and 2 TDs. Impressive.
Did they win? Or cover? No, as Minnesota won 30-23.
The most obvious explanation and it’s obvious: 2 turnovers. Turnovers are one of the most basic fundamentals of winning football, both straight up and against the number when analyzing football picks.
There’s a reason they play the games. Teams don’t always play the way stats and power rankings suggest they are supposed to. That’s often evident early in the pro and college football seasons because some teams are very different from year to year. Look at a team like Michigan. The Wolverines stumbled badly last year with a very young team and a new coach bringing in a whole new offensive philosophy.
College and pro football offer a variety of great match-ups every weekend. A good handicapper, though, doesn’t just look at individual and team match-ups. There are other factors surrounding a game that can be equally important to identifying a winning spread cover, such as scheduling and road travel.
You have to remember that in September it’s more likely that defenses are ahead of the offenses in pro and college football. This might not seem the case when you watch Miami and Florida State put on an exciting 38-34 shootout with both teams tallying over 400 yards. However, that’s not the norm, either, something that needs to be assessed carefully when trying to find football picks each week. Think of the NFL opener as the Steelers and Titans battled to a 13-10 low scoring affair in overtime.
The best time of the sports calendar is here, the opening week of the pro football campaign! There are mountains of stats and angles available for sports bettors to digest from this season and years past. Information certainly is a huge key when analyzing games and point spreads. Sometimes it can seem that there is too much info, but it’s essential to understand that stats are only a starting point. They don’t always tell the whole story. In fact, stats can sometimes lie, something to keep in mind when searching for football picks.