Week 11 Arizona vs San Francisco NFL Free Pick – Odds – Handicapping
The oddsmakers tab the Cardinals vs. 49ers game on Sunday to be the biggest mismatch on the board. 9 ½ points is a big spread for a divisional game – or is it? The Arizona Cardinals come into the game on a two game winning streak.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-6) vs. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (8-1)
Date/Time: Sunday, November 20, 4:05 PM ET
Venue: Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
Broadcast: FOX
Cardinals vs. 49ers Betting Lines from betonline.com
Spread: San Francisco -9 ½
Moneyline: Arizona +405: San Francisco -500
Over/Under: 40 ½ points
Impressive until you see that the 49ers are on a seven game streak of their own. Offense is not the strong suit of either of these teams – the better defense will win this game!
The Arizona Cardinals may have accidentally found a quarterback! John Skelton replaced the injured and clearly overhyped Kevin Kolb when Kolb went down with injury. He has guided his team to two straight wins and threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns last week. Most importantly, he has found Larry Fitzgerald – the best player that will take to the field on Sunday. Fitzgerald had 146 yards and two touchdowns last week and is somehow 4th in the NFL with 792 yards receiving.
Beanie Wells hasn’t been the same since he returned from injury and will likely find some tough sledding against the 49ers top ranked run defense. Running on San Francisco will not happen.
Defensively, Arizona offers little resistance – 24th against the pass and 21st against the run.
It is hard to believe that the 49ers still don’t have the respect of all. The oddsmakers surely like them! But the 49ers are 8-0-1 ATS this season, so a 9 ½ point spread shouldn’t scare you too much. They are a complete team on offense and defense – Jim Harbaugh is unquestionably the Coach of the Year.
The 49ers won’t beat you with their passing game – they are 29th in the league averaging 179 yards per game. But their passing game doesn’t hurt them either – Alex Smith has thrown just 3 interceptions so far this season. San Francisco is all about the run – 7th ranked with an average of 130.89 yards per game. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Frank Gore had a streak of four game with 125+ yards and a score snapped last week when he was forced out of the game with injury. He is expected to play this week but he will likely be less than 100%. Kendall Hunter did a decent job in relief in Week 10 so the running game should be OK.
San Francisco’s defense has been sensational this season – #1 against the run and allowing the fewest points per game in the league. They have not allowed a rushing touchdown this season! Teams have to throw on these guys hence the 26th rated pass defense. It is obvious that teams aren’t scoring through the air however – the 49ers only allow 15.33 points per game.
Betting Prediction: The Arizona Cardinals are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games on the road and are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 away from home. The Cards are 0-5 ATS in their last five against the 49ers are 3-12 SU and 3-7-1 ATS in recent trips to San Francisco. The 49ers are 8-0-1 ATS this season and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven at home.
San Francisco has won the last four meetings between the two clubs and they have covered in all of those game. It is obvious to me who to pick on Sunday despite the Spread!
Pick: San Francisco 49ers
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