Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-5, 1-5 SEC) vs. #6 Arkansas Razorbacks (9-1, 5-1 SEC)
This truly has been a dream season for the Arkansas Razorbacks. While it would be even more so if LSU and Alabama weren’t so dominant themselves, the Hogs can only control what is within their grasp.
War Memorial Stadium, Little Rock AR
Saturday, Nov. 19, 3:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Miss. St. +390, Arkansas -490
Spread: Miss. St. +13, Arkansas -13
Over/Under: 53.5
To this point, they have been accomplishing that admirably. A one-loss campaign nearing the end of the regular season in the cutthroat SEC West is truly impressive.
It has been the opposite story for Mississippi State, but it will look to play the role of spoiler.
In this game, which will take place in the “neutral” territory of War Memorial Stadium, (though that description isn’t slightly accurate, the game at least isn’t being played on the Arkansas campus in Fayetteville) the essentially-home team Hogs will look to air out the football like they’ve done all year.
The passing game is producing over 311 yards per game and junior starting pivot Tyler Wilson is looking like a world-beater. Wilson should eclipse 3,000 passing yards on the year in this weekend’s game. His 18-5 TD/INT ratio also is not too shabby.
The bulk of that production has gone to WRs Jarius Wright (53 receptions, 906 yards, 10 TDs) and Joe Adams (43 snags for 568 and two scores). Adams is also deadly in the special teams game, as he proved with an unbelievable punt return last week last week in a 49-7 drubbing of Tennessee.
It’s not just scoring in the Ozarks, either. The Hogs’ defense has been excellent in 2011, ranking 30th in the nation and giving up only 21 points per game. That is certainly good enough when you have such a volatile offense as Arkansas does.
“Pig Sooey” has to be riding high after out-scoring SEC opponents South Carolina and Tennessee 93-35 in the past couple of weeks – and Top 10-ranked South Carolina, no less.
The MSU Bulldogs have not lived up to expectations this year.
The Bulldogs registered nine wins in 2010 and their fans thought this team had the makings of a contender. The defense has been solid in Starkville – it is ranked 17th in the nation and is surrendering less than 20 points per – but State has simply not won the close games and has not been quite good enough in such a tricky conference and division.
The only real “blow-out” MSU has suffered was a 24-7 loss to superb Alabama, but the Bulldogs can take little solace in that. After all, close is only good enough with horseshoes and hand grenades. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
As I said, Mississippi State has a good defense and could rankle the Arkansas attack here or there, but the Hogs should break through with a couple scores and if that happens, the de facto home team should use that momentum to pull away.
The Hogs will have to also be vigilant against a strong MSU running game. Indeed, if Arkansas had the ineffective defense it has had in past seasons, this would probably be a much more daunting game for the Razorbacks.
But the combination of an improved “D”, Wilson’s aerial feats and a deep if unspectacular (and finally healthy) running back stable should translate to Arkansas’ 10th win of the regular season. It is indeed reason to celebrate in former President Bill Clinton’s home state.
Mississippi State should finish the season on a strong note with a victory over flaccid in-state rival Ole Miss, but before that happens, there should be one more dose of misery in Little Rock.
For Arkansas, this is the last hurdle before the fateful meeting with #1 LSU in the last week of the regular season. The one instance where the Hogs could be upset is if they are caught looking ahead; MSU is good enough that it cannot be taken lightly.
Still, expect Bobby Petrino’s men to get the job done in the state capital this Saturday afternoon.
Score Prediction: Arkansas 24, Mississippi State 15
Over/Under Prediction: 39
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