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Tony George Free Pick -
No Pick

 

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Matt Fargo's Free Pick Of The Day -
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
NFL | Sep 07 Play: ML: Play Baltimore Ravens 1.5 Units

It is time to start over in Baltimore and that does not necessarily mean to rebuild. A new coach, new systems and to start the season, a new quarterback are what the Ravens are about in 2008. The Ravens were a huge disappointment last year as a 13-4 season in 2006 turned into a 5-11 season last year that included nine straight losses following a solid 4-2 start. Brian Billick left after nine years, four playoff appearances and a Super Bowl Championship and in comes John Harbaugh to try and right the ship.

While things may look bleak for the Ravens, they are even bleaker for Cincinnati. The Bengals went 11-6 in 2005 and it looked as though Cincinnati was in for years of success. However, it has gone 15-17 over the last two seasons and the organization has been mired in off the field problems with arrests as far as the eye can see. The talent is there but the makeup of the players is another question. The Bengals went 2-5-1 ATS on the road last season including a 1-4 ATS mark as a road chalk so asking them to lay here is absurd.

We start out with Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Flacco who wasn’t supposed to be the starter but an injury to Kyle Boller and a sickness to Troy Smith have forced him into action. Watching him in the preseason was not as bad as it normally looks for rookie signal callers. He finished with a 68.3 rating which is certainly not the best but his arm looked very good and he did not throw any interceptions. Facing a Bengals team that finished 26th in passing defense and allowed the 6th worse rating last year definitely helps.

Offensively, Cincinnati will be looking to air it out all day as it likely is not going to get much on the ground. Baltimore, despite being an aging stop unit, finished 2nd in rushing defense at 79.2 ypg and 1st in rushing average at 2.8 ypc. It will also be up to that front seven to get pressure on Carson Palmer as he will be facing a banged up secondary. Offsetting that should be the timing between Palmer receivers Chad Ocho Cinco (can’t believe I actually typed that) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh as injuries hurt the latter two.

Ravens running back Willis McGahee will be gametime decision and if he cannot go, rookie Ray Rice will get the call. Rice, a second-round pick out of Rutgers, started every game in the preseason, rushing for 146 yards on 26 carries (5.6 ypc) so quite honestly, it doesn’t matter who goes as both can have big days. The offensive line will have the job of opening holes but most importantly, it needs to protect Flacco. With the public all over the Bengals, this line could go up even more and reach a field goal by gametime. Take it. Play Baltimore Ravens 1.5 Units

Fargo started the 2008 NFL season the same way he ended last year with a Wire-to-Wire win with the Giants! He enters the first Sunday of the season ready to strike with his Non-Conference Game of the Month! Fargo and his Game of the Month Reports last season were money as he went 7-1 ATS (87.5%)! This one is backed by a Power Situation that is 52-13 ATS (80%)!

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Rocketman Sports Free Daily Sports Pick -
Cincinnati @ Baltimore 1:00 PM EST
Play On: 1* Cincinnati -1 1/2

Cincinnati is 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs Baltimore last 3 years.  Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September.  Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.  Ravens are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.  Ravens are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1.  Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North.  Ravens are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC.  Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.  Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.  Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.  We'll recommend a small play on Cincinnati as your FREE play Sunday! 

Thanks and good luck, Rocky  

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Jimmy Boyd Free Daily Sports Pick -
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints - (NFL) Sunday Sept 7th, 2008
Play: 1 Unit FREE PLAY on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

The Road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings and the underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New Orleans. The Saints are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall and 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 home games. The underdog has won 10 of the last 13 SU in this matchup and that’s what we like to happen again here. Tampa Bay did win the division a season ago and it still boasts the best defense in the NFC South. New Orleans started very slow last season and don’t be surprised if they have the same sluggish start in 2008.

We’ll take the points for a small play.

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Doc Sports Free Daily Sports Pick -
No Pick



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Vernon Croy 's Free Pick Of The Day -
No Pick

Make sure you get on my MLB Bookie Buster as I have it cashing hands down tonight.

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Big Al's Free Pick Of The Day -
Giants vs. Piratres (MLB) - Sept 7, 2008 4:05 PM EDT
Play: ML Giants Title: Big Al's FREE Sunday MLB Winner.

At 4:05pm our complimentary selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  If the Bucs could play the entire season against San Francisco, they would not only make the postseason, they would have home field throughout the playoffs.  The Pirates have had the Giants' number in 2008, having taken four of five contests going into this season's finale.  Of course it doesn't hurt that Pittsburgh never had to face the Giants' best starter, and possible Cy Young award winner, Tim Lincecum in any of its matchups this season.  Tonight, the Bucs will face young Jonathan O. Sanchez for the second time this season, and although Sanchez is still looking for his first post-All Star victory, he was injured for most of August and has recovered and seems to be back to the form that made him such a dangerous young threat in the first half of the season.  25-year-old righthander Jeff Karstens was acquired by Pittsburgh from the Yankees in the trade that sent Xavier Nady to the Bronx, and although Karstens sports a 3.62 ERA and a complete game already for the Bucs, he has looked like a tired pitcher lately and is better suited to relief in the long term.  Karstens, who has never faced the Giants before, is a control pitcher with very low strikeout numbers which makes him pretty much the opposite of Sanchez.  With the Giants' win on Saturday, the Pirates are now 3-12 in their last 15 games. 

Take San Francisco. 

As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

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Ross Benjamin's Free Daily Sports Pick -
No Pick

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John Ryan
Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - Sep 7, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 1/102 Seattle Seahawks Pick Title: Seattle

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Seattle – Buffalo has high expectations with many Bills players guaranteeing that this will be a playoff bound season. Their first game can’t get much more difficult with the Seahawks coming into town. Buffalo has a new offensive scheme and several new players on defense. In summary, I just don’t see, based on published reports and pre-season performances, how Buffalo will be able to play a complete game from beginning to end. Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters is holding out in a contract dispute. Defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, outside linebacker Kawika Mitchell and cornerback Leodis MvKelvin, the team's first-round draft pick, make their debuts on a revamped defense. Seattle’s defense is very good and filled with Pro Bowlers. This defensive unit will set the tone and control the LOS throughout the game. I think it makes total sense too, that the Seattle offense will try and run as many plays as possible with quick huddles and even using a no huddle every so often. In setting a fast tone, it will force Buffalo to stay with personnel on the field and allow Seattle to identify favorable matchups to exploit. AiS shows a 73% probability that Seattle will win this game. It also reveals an 83% probability that they will gain a MINIMUM of 300 total yards on offense. Note that Seattle is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Here is a significant money line angle that shows Buffalo with a 1-7 mark losing -7.2 units when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. Take Seattle

Craig Trapp
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - Sep 7, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -3/107 Jacksonville Jaguars Pick Title: Craig's Free Play for NFL

This would definately be one of Craig's premium plays if this team was not having off the field transgressions. All of the positive momentum the Jaguars (11-5) generated with their 2007 season and by locking up quarterback David Garrard to a long-term deal in April has been threatened by some off-the-field episodes. Now the Jaguars (11-5) must put aside the distractions and refocus for a season which many believe could be the one in which they finally wrestle away the AFC South crown from Indianapolis, which has won five straight division titles. Garrard didn't have his best game in the team's wild-card playoff win in Pittsburgh, but in the divisional round against New England he completed 22 of 33 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns despite the Jaguars' 31-20 loss. The 30-year-old Garrard was rewarded with the richest contract in team history, a six-year, $60 million extension. Garrard's progress along with the running back tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew and Taylor give the Jaguars a potentially potent offense, though the wide receiver position remains a question mark. On the other hand there are many questions for TEN offense. Tennessee's chances to make a return appearance to the postseason are unquestionably tied to quarterback Vince Young, who proved in his second NFL season that he's still a work in progress. They have a very solid back in White but injuries have always hurt him. Most games this competitive come down to QB and coaching and without a doubt JAC beats them at both. Expect it to be low scoring with JAC pulling away in the 4th quarter. SCORE JAC 20 - TEN 13

Michael Alexander
Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - Sep 7, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
Play: Total: 41/-104 Under Pick Title: NFL Free Pick - Detroit vs Atlanta (Under)

The Detroit Lions take to the road today where historically they have been abismal posting a 9-15 ATS mark the last three seasons. The Mike Martz regime didn't work on offense last season as Jon Kitna took a beating as the Loions offense ranked 30th in sacks allowed. Martz is replaced by offensive line coach, Jim Colleto. Colleto is a clock management type of guy so the pass now run later phylosphy of Martz is now gone. Expect the Lions to run most of the time with Kitna picking his spots on the air as the offensive line gets used to Colleto's zone blocking schemes.

The Atlanta Falcons comes into this year with a huge shortage of talent after a disasterous 4-12 SU season. The offense that was essentially put together to compliment Michael Vicks talents is just about gone. It was an offense that last season finished 29th in scoring. The Falcons are pinning all of their hopes on rookie QB Matt Ryan but without much of a supporting cast and wide receivers who have yet to develop a rapport with their QB don't you can expect more of the same from the offensive unit.

SUPPORTING ANGLES: Playing the under with any team against the total (ATLANTA) in the first two weeks of the season is 156-96 UNDER the last 5 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 games in Week 1.

The Detroit defense is essentially built of ex-Tampa Bay players/advisors so expect the cover-2 scheme to play havoc with rookie QB Ryan. That combination along with Detroit's new ball control offensive phylosiphy will bring this number UNDER the total.

Tony Karpinski
Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - Sep 7, 2008 8:15 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -10/105 Indianapolis Colts Pick Title: FREE PICK

This is a rematch of '06 Super Bowl, which wasn't as close as the 29-17 final. Bears now going with Orton over Grossman. It was just a matter of time. But the departure of Benson, Berriman, & Muhammad sure doesn't make matters easier for the Chicago "O", despite moving Hester to WR.

The Colts, believe it or not, finished as the 15th rated "O" team a year ago, so improvement is a must, with the return of Harrison of utmost importance. The Bears are just 5-10 vs the AFC, while Indy will roll big time with Manning in the drivers seat. COLYS by 20

Steve Merril
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - Sep 7, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
Play: Total: 43/-113 Under

The Patriots were an explosive offensive team last year and they dominated most of their opponents in the regular season, but they still did not win the Super Bowl and I expect New England to put less emphasis on the regular season games this year. The Patriots’ offense is likely to be a bit rusty today as quarterback Tom Brady is playing for the first time after missing the entire preseason. Brady is battling a leg injury and his effectiveness today is a major question mark. He normally does not play in the final exhibition game, but last year he had 41 pass attempts in the second and third preseason games, so his lack of game action will affect him today. The biggest key to a low-scoring game is the fact Kansas City has a terrible offense that averaged just 14.1 points per game and 4.7 yards per play last year (versus opponents that allowed 21.9 ppg and 5.5 yppl). Quarterback Brodie Croyle struggled in the preseason with a 5.7 ypp average and a weak 65.6 QB rating, so it does not appear the Chiefs will be any better on offense this year.

Charlie Scott
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - Sep 7, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -1/-118 Cincinnati Bengals Pick Title: NFL Sunday Play

This is an ugly matchup , but when we win, the money all spends the same. More of a play against Baltimore than anything else. For the Ravens it's Harbaugh's first game as a head coach, QB Joe Flacco makes his first start, which will be a huge jump from playing at Delaware and RB Ray Rice will see a lot of action. The Veteran Bengals have won 7 out of the last 8 in this matchup and with the low pointspread this trend should hopefully continue.

Tony Stevens
Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - Sep 7, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -3/-115 Detroit Lions

Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.

Tom Stryker
Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - Sep 7, 2008 1:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -1/-111 Buffalo Bills Pick Title: Tom Stryker's FREE NFL Play

With the health of Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck in question, Buffalo will be prepared to take advantage of the opportunity at hand. Hasselbeck has played in only two series during the pre-season and his back is definitely an issue. It won’t help that Matt has limited targets either. The Seahawks are without their leading receiver Bobby Engram and also minus the services of Ben Oboramnu.

Buffalo’s offense wasn’t the best last year. The Bills averaged only 277.1 yards per game. However, quarterback Trent Edwards and running back Marshawn Lynch have some valuable playing time under their belts and they’ll move the football better under the direction of first-year coordinator Turk Schonert.

There are a few strong trends that favor Buffalo in this game too. First, at home in non-division action, the Bills are a sweet 62-37-2 ATS since the 1986 season. When matched up against teams from the NFC, Buffy has cruised to a spectacular 31-19-2 ATS mark. Of course, the AFC’s 140-103-8 ATS home record against the NFC can’t be overlooked here either!

On foreign soil, Seattle has found the going a bit rough notching a weak 6-13-1 ATS mark in its last 20 games. In addition, the Seahawks have struggled against teams from the AFC posting a soft 6-10-1 ATS mark in their last 16 tries.

If the Bills want to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999, they know they must defend their home turf. That means a victory over Seattle is a must. Take Buffalo! Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

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BeatYourBookie.com
Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators (September 6) (8:00 P.M. EST)
Play: MIAMI HURRICANES (+23)

Miami has won 6 of the last 8 road games when the total posted is between 49.5 and 52 points and they have also won 22 of the last 27 games when playing in the 1st two weeks of the season.  Meanwhile, Florida has lost 4 of the last 5 games against the spread coming off a game without a turnover and they have also lost 8 of the last 11 home games against the spread when the total posted is between 49.5 and 52 points.

Play on MIAMI HURRICANES

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